The Great Grain Drain
The
United States, Canada and Australia have been blessed with such
extensive amber waves of grain for so many years that those nations
have been able to help feed a hungry world. But drought and increased
exports are depleting their stockpiles at an alarmingly rapid pace.
Many experts are coming to the conclusion that widespread food
shortages are inevitable -even in those developed western countries!
By Mark Mendiola
The
mainstream news media barely mentioned startling U.S. Department of
Agriculture report issued on Oct. 12, 2007, that showed a disturbing
steep drop in world grain supplies. Most people are unaware of this
significant, ominous trend, which is treated like a footnote by
newspapers and a blip by television networks as they sensationalize the
latest i consequential celebrity scandal or other meaningless
developments.
Yet, a looming global food shortage will become
one of the most shocking international developments in the
not-so-distant future! Such a turn in events could trigger a worsening
of tensions between nations and ignite a sharp spike in grocery costs
for virtually everyone, even leading to mass starvation throughout the
world. It's that critical!
Most in the western world remain
oblivious to this frightening scenario as they go about their mundane
lives and are absorbed by their endless pursuit of pleasure and comfort.
The
abundance of wheat, barley and other crops produced in the United
States, Canada and Australia has fed much of the world for decades, but
the days of plentiful stockpiles in those traditional breadbaskets are
coming to an end as the grain is drained while demand exceeds supply.
"The
USDA projects wheat supplies for the 2007-2008 crop year will fall to
307 million bushels, down 55 million bushels from its estimate last
month, due to the fast pace of export shipments. Foreign appetite for
the country's wheat has surged after poor weather damaged harvests
around the world this year," the Associated Press reported in October.
"Record high prices have done little to dampen demand. Stockpiles of
wheat at the crop year's end would be the lowest since 1949."
In
other words, the AP reports U.S. wheat stockpiles may shrink to the
lowest level in nearly 60 years due to robust demand following two
years of dismal harvests throughout the world! The USDA also projected
that world wheat stocks will be down to 107 million tons this next year
- or the lowest level in 32 years - as world population swells by 70
million people each year. That's down from 119.3 million tons in 2006
as food resources relentlessly dwindle to precariously low levels.
The
top United Nations agriculture official warned on Dec. 17 that the
world food supply is dwindling rapidly and food prices are soaring to
historic levels in what he called an "unforeseen and unprecedented
shift," the International Herald Tribune reported. Jacques Diouf, head
of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, lamented that the FAO's
food price index rose by more than 40 percent in 2007, compared to 9
percent in 2006. World wheat supplies fell 11 percent in 2007 to the
lowest level since 1980. There are only 12 weeks of world wheat and
eight weeks of world corn left in storage based on consumption rates.
Wheat was fetching as little as $5 a bushel in May 2007, but broke a
record $10 a bushel on Dec. 17 -double what was paid only seven months
earlier! It won't be long before this "agflation" hits consumers hard
as staples become increasingly expensive to buy.
"In early
September, the world price of wheat rose to over $400 a (ton), the
highest ever recorded. In May it had been around $200. Though in real
terms its price is far below the heights it scaled in 1974, it is still
twice the average of the past 25 years. Earlier this year the price of
(corn) exceeded $175 a (ton), again a world record. It has fallen from
its peak, as has that of wheat, but at $150 a (ton) is still 50% above
the average for 2006," The Economist reported in its Dec. 6 edition in
a cover story titled, "The End of Cheap Food." Rice prices also hit
records in 2007.
The British magazine's food price index is at
its highest since it started in 1845, rising by one-third the past
year! "This year the overall decline in stockpiles of all cereals will
be about 53 (million tons) - a very rough indication of... how much
demand is outstripping supply." The International Food Policy Research
Institute projects grain prices will rise by up to 20 percent by 2015.
The FAO's forecast for 2016-17 is slightly higher, The Economist
reports.
A weak U.S. dollar has prompted foreign investors to
buy large quantities of relatively inexpensive grain on the world
market, helping trim the monstrous U.S. trade deficit but also
depleting domestic stockpiles. The U.S. Commerce Department reported on
Oct. 11 that the U.S. trade deficit dropped to its lowest level in
seven months - due largely to increased exports of wheat, corn and
soybeans. However, the prospect of American farmers emptying their
silos to export their grains overseas is a grim reality with dire
consequences.
"Wheat
supplies are of special concern given that Australia's harvest this
fall, which is expected to be meager, will do little to replenish
dwindling world stockpiles. One wheat crop after another this year has
suffered either too much rain or too little, and inventories are headed
for the lowest in more than two decades," the AP reported.
Perhaps
nowhere on earth have severe weather conditions hurt crop production
more than in Australia, which has endured an extreme blistering drought
for several years now that has decimated its crops. On
Sept. 18,
2007, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics cut
its wheat forecast for the world's second largest grain exporter to
15.5 million tons, down from its June forecast of 22.5 million tons.
Australia usually produces about 25 million tons annually.
Jonathan
Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services in Australia,
told Bloomberg: "Wheat has been unbelievable with the way it has been
trading over the last three to four months. There are critical supply
shortages."
The
Australian bureau slashed its total winter crop production by 31
percent to 25.6 million tons and its barley forecast by 35 percent to
5.9 million tons. Andrew Gillanders, chairman of the Grains Council of
New Zealand, told The Press in his country on Sept. 21, "The rest of
the world wanted to import grain from Australia, and we now have a
below-average Northern Hemisphere harvest, and the main producers are
now below average in the Southern Hemisphere. It has created a
hand-to-mouth situation throughout the world." Meanwhile, Canadian
wheat production for 2007 was projected at 20.64 million tons, down
from 25.26 million tons in 2006, according to Statistics Canada. Spring
wheat production was projected to be down by 23 percent and winter
wheat down by 18 percent. Western Canadian wheat production fell 19
percent to 15.3 million tons. Soybean production was expected to be
down by 19.6 percent. The Canadian Wheat Board expects wheat prices to
stay high well into 2008 because of low global stockpiles and adverse
weather cutting output in major exporting countries, Bloomberg reported
on Dec. 6. Meanwhile, U.S. wheat sales almost doubled in six months.
Believe it or not, the Bible shows steep drops in grain production in
the United States, Australia and Canada portend food shortages and even
famine in western nations. Those countries finally will realize the
wheat, barley, corn, soybeans and other crops stored for ready
consumption are not guaranteed. They will learn the hard way that the
food on their tables and shelves is a blessing not to be taken for
granted!
CURSE ON FOOD, WATER
There's
a direct correlation between the setbacks experienced on the
agricultural front by the American and British-descended nations and
their plunge into blatant immorality - to the point anything regarding
Almighty God and His commandments is viewed with open contempt. It's no
coincidence that as these countries derisively reject their
Judeo-Christian heritage that terrible curses are afflicting them.
Nothing will bring nations or empires down more rapidly than
destructive drought, wildfires or flooding that ruin
crops and bring about food shortages!
Yet,
most in our modern society refuse to admit there's a direct cause and
effect between our personal actions and the curses overtaking the
United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and
related countries. Instead, they will blame "increased carbon dioxide
emissions" for the horrendous conditions afflicting our peoples,
denying even the existence of Almighty God who controls the weather.
Moses emphasized in no uncertain terms that if the Israelites would
obey God, they would be blessed with abundant harvests, overflowing
stockpiles, excellent weather, military victories and preeminence among
nations.
"But it shall come to pass, if you do not obey the
voice of the LORD your God, to observe carefully all His commandments
and His statutes which I command you today, that all these curses will
come upon you and overtake you ... Cursed shall be your (bread) basket
and kneading bowl. Cursed shall be the fruit of your body and the
produce of your land, the increase of your cattle and the offspring of
your flocks. ... The LORD will strike you ... with scorching (blight),
and with mildew ... And your heavens which are over your head shall be
bronze, and the earth which is under you shall be iron. The LORD will
change the rain of your land to powder and dust; from the heaven it
shall come down on you until you are destroyed (Deuteronomy 28:15,
17-18, 22-24)."
Many parts of the United States, Australia and Canada are experiencing large sections of land
scorched
by drought, bringing to mind the devastating Dust Bowl of the 1930s.
Water levels in reservoirs and lakes are dropping quickly. Snow pack in
mountains is failing to materialize. Forest and rangelands are turning
into extremely flammable tinder.
October's devastating infernos
in California that forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee their
homes - which were consumed by raging flames that caused at least $1
billion in property damage - are yet another major curse to afflict our
people. Much of the state's avocado crop was wiped out by
those fires. Los Angeles recorded only 3.2 inches of rain up to June 30, making it the driest year on
record
since 1877. The city draws half its water from the Sierra Nevada
mountain range, which has seen only about 20 per cent of normal levels
prior to December.
"An epic drought in Georgia threatens the
water supply for millions. Florida doesn't have nearly enough water for
its expected population boom. The Great Lakes are shrinking. Upstate
New York's reservoirs have dropped to record lows. And in the West, the
Sierra Nevada snowpack is melting faster each year. Across America, the
picture is critically clear - the nation's freshwater supplies can no
longer quench its thirst," the Associated Press reported at the end of
October.
"The
government projects that at least 36 states will face water shortages
within five years because of a combination of rising temperatures,
drought, population growth, urban sprawl, waste and excess." On the
heels of California's catastrophic fires, it was learned that Lake
Lanier, Atlanta's main source of water in Georgia, could run dry in a
matter of months, leaving more than four million people in that
metropolitan area without water. Lake Okeechobee, the backup water
supply for metropolitan South Florida, also remained five feet below
normal in October despite September rains. "The drought that started in
parts of Georgia and Alabama in early 2006 has spread throughout the
region, worsened by sweltering temperatures and a drier-than-normal
hurricane season," the Associated Press reported.
As the New
York Times reported, 2007 was the first time in more than 100 years
that much of the Southeast had reached the most severe category of
drought. The region's reservoirs were at or near alltime lows. "For the
better part of 18 months, cloudless blue skies and high temperatures
have shriveled crops and bronzed lawns from North Carolina to Alabama."
NOAA/National Weather Service forecaster Randy Schecter stated, "By the
middle of October, extreme drought covered nearly one-half of the
Southeast, and critical water shortages had developed in a number of
cities. With the hardest-hit areas needing more than a foot of rain to
pull out of drought, this drought is not going away soon."
At
the end of October, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed all 50 states with
some level of dryness or drought, covering 52 percent of the nation
when normal is 30 percent. Fifty percent of the Southeast was
experiencing "extreme" drought conditions -the highest intensity - with
31 per cent of it reeling from "exceptional" conditions, affecting
millions of people in the region. "Reservoirs and lakes in Georgia,
Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, and North and South Carolina have dried
up, prompting some states to ship water in from other areas of the
country," CTV reported. The water shortage in the Southeast is getting
so extreme that Georgia, Alabama and Florida are engaged in a
"Tri-State Water War" for the precious, dwindling commodity. The epic
drought in the Southeast is the worst there in more than a century.
Wells in North Carolina even are drying up, forcing residents to either
buy water or retrieve it from creeks and streams.
"Through
September, it is the region's driest year in 113 years of
record-keeping. In five of the six worst-hit states, rain totals this
year are close to a foot below normal. It is the driest year on record
for North Carolina and Tennessee, second-driest in Alabama and
third-driest in Kentucky. A tree-ring study this summer of Tennessee's
rainfall history shows this is the third-driest year for the state in
at least 350 years, behind only 1839 and 1708," USA Today reported.
Farmers
from Virginia to Alabama are selling cattle they normally would keep
over winter because pastures have dried up and hay is too costly. Some
growers of grain, cotton, peanuts and soybeans aren't planting or may
quit." If mandatory commercial and industrial water cutbacks are
imposed in Atlanta, it would be the first time a major U.S.
metropolitan area has been forced to take such drastic action to save
its water supply, National Drought Mitigation Center experts said.
Farming and personal water restrictions could then follow.
FAMINE: A SIGN OF THE TIMES
The
unthinkable prospect of a major U.S. city running out of water and taps
running dry now is a grim reality. That frightening development
fulfills a major prophecy by the Old Testament Prophet Amos, who
foresaw drought conditions getting so bad that grain would become
scarce and cities would lack drinking water.
'"Also I gave you
cleanness of teeth (hunger) in all your cities. And lack of bread in
all your places; Yet you have not returned to Me; says the LORD. 'I
also withheld rain from you, when there were still three months to the
harvest. 1 made it ram on one city, I withheld rain from another city.
One part was rained upon, and where it did not rain the part withered.
So two or three cities wandered to another city to drink water, but
they were not satisfied; Yet you have not returned to Me,' says the
LORD. 'I blasted you with blight and mildew. ... Yet you have not
returned to Me; " says the LORD. (Amos 4:6-9)"
The Bible is
plain that the Great Creator God determines weather patterns and
whether particular areas get rain. "Blight and mildew" imply both
drought and flooding destroying crops. Even devastating wildfires can
be used by God as divine punishment to get His people to return to Him.
"Behold, the Lord GOD called for conflict by fire, and it consumed the
great deep and devoured the territory (Amos 7:4). These terrible
conditions are afflicting nations such as the United States, Canada and
Australia with greater intensity and frequency, wiping out large swaths
of grain and other vital crops, jeopardizing our food supplies.
The
Bible shows that prior to Christ's return massive food shortages will
be rampant throughout the world, hi the Book of Revelation, one of the
"Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" is described as a rider on a black
horse that symbolizes famine stalking the earth. Jesus Christ warned
that famine would be a major sign of the end of this age and His Second
Coming (Luke 21:11, Mark 13:8, Matthew 24:3,7).
"When He
(Christ) opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say,
'Come and see.' And I looked, and behold, a black horse, and he who sat
on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard a voice in the
midst of the four living creatures saying, 'A quart of wheat for a
denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not harm
the oil and the wine' (Revelation 6:5-6)."
A
denarius was about a day's wage for a worker in Palestine about 2,000
years ago, when Christ and His disciples lived in that area.
Meticulously measuring and paying that much money for such a tiny
amount of grain shows food in extremely short supply and prices soaring
as a result.
That's a description of conditions yet to come in
the near future - not only in Third World countries but even the United
States, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and New Zealand - believe it
or not\ The mountains of grain reaped in those western nations are
shriveling to incredibly smaller heaps not enough to feed the entire
world.
A crisis of massive proportions is developing right before
our eyes as drought, wildfires, flooding, blight and mildew ravage our
food stockpiles. One of these days, all of us could wake up to find
ourselves feeling pangs of hunger that respect no national boundaries!
By Mark Mendiola The Philadelphia Remnant Magazine Jan-Feb 2008
