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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, October 10, 1980
Page 17
Europe to the Middle East. The eruption of war in the oil-laden Persian
Gulf casts a huge pall over the economies of all of Western Europe.
Because of his years of experience on the job, West Germans were not
about to turn out Herr Schmidt, one of their most successful chancellors
ever, at this time. Strauss represented too much of a risk now. As one
lady told me, she was voting SPD but would probably have gone with the
CDU had it not been for Strauss personally.
The Free Democrats, feeling their oats, are certain to ask for more power
within the SPD-FDP coalition. This could make life a little rougher for
Herr Schmidt who always has a tassle with his party's troublesome left
wing. Also, since the FOP drew so much of a "protest vote" from the CDU,
it must be more sensitive to traditional conservative desires. Hence more
trouble for Schmidt. This means, editoralized the Times of London, that
"a change of coalition partner becomes in principle easier to contemplate.
However the intention is clearly to stick with the present coalition for
the next four years. A break is likely only if Herr Schmidt steps down
for reasons of health or principle and if life with the left then becomes
intolerable."
Strauss's Future
And what of the future of Franz Josef Strauss? Right now, it's bleak,
a development the Bavarian has faced numerous times in his long up-and
down career. Under normal conditions, Strauss stands little chance of
becoming the CDU-CSU standard bearer four years hence.
The only chance Herr Strauss has is to retain his power base in Bavaria,
the Republic's biggest state, and to continue to speak out against
Schmidt's policies from within the Bundesrat, Bonn's upper chamber.
Increased world turmoil is certainly in his favor. Strauss will, as he
did continually during the campaign, warn that the left-leaning Socialists
are cutting Germany's moorings from the West and from America in partic
ular. At the present time, with relative prosperity still to be enjoyed,
West German voters didn't feel Strauss had enough of an argument. This
could change, especially if Russia ends up with a strangle hold on Persian
Gulf oil and holds Germany and the West at ransom, demanding that NATO be
dismembered, forcing the Americans to leave Europe.
Finally feeling the chilling embrace of Moscow, the German people may yet
call for the Bavarian strongman--the one they feared in good times--to
rescue them from their crisis. Herr Strauss may yet be Germany's--and
Europe's--"man for emergencies."
--Gene H. Hogberg, News Bureau