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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, OCTOBER 15, 1982
PAGE 7
Some Bundestag members in the October 1 debate even made references to
"another Weimar"--alluding to the ill-fated German republic between
World Wars I and I
I.
The founding fathers of the post-World War I I
West German democratic state were determined not to repeat one of
their predecessor government's main weaknesses--that of the prolif
eration of many small political parties which led to par1iamentary
paralysis. They instead put a five percent threshhold minimum on rep
resentation. However, even this safety factor no longer holds firm.
The FDP is on the way out, the left and right are becoming polarized,
with the Greens gaining a legalized foothold. Result: looming polit
ical paralysis � again, with the certain call some day for �
"strong�" to show the way out of
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dilemma.
5. The common consensus is that Helmut Kohl will not be able to provide
the leadership needed for the rough months ahead. Basically a pro
vincial Rhineland politician--"The Colorless Man From the Sticks"
headlined the TIMES of London--he lacks expertise in foreign affairs.
Beyond this, it is probably the brot-und-butter economic issues that
will make or break him. West German unemployment may soon go up to 10%
from 7.4%. He won't be at fault, but he will be blamed for the rise,
just as Mr. Reagan is in the U.S. Already such words as "clumsiness"
ane "naivete" are being used to describe Herr Kohl in his first few
days in office.
6. Behind Kohl now and looming ever larger over the whole West German
political horizon is the dominating figure of Franz Josef Strauss.
The October 7 issue of DER STERN, the West German popular weekly, de
picted as much on its cover--a small picture of Kohl with a huge pro
filed shadow of Strauss in the background. Strauss is playing his
cards very cautiously, speaking out when and where he deems appro
priate, retreating at other times. He was hardly to be seen in the
historic October 1 Bundestag debate when Kohl and Genscher engineerad
the switch. That was their game, not his.
In a recent SPIEGEL interview, Bavaria's Minister-President took aim
at the policy being pursued by the conservatives. "Our greatest enemy
is impatience," he said. Franz Josef Strauss seems to sense that his
time is inevitably coming--a time when economic and social conditions
will be so severe in West Germany that the German people will finally
turn to him for the dynamic leadership that will be required.
Until then, as Strauss has been quoted as saying on a number of
occasions: "I don't care who is chancellor under me."
--Gene H. Hogberg, News Bureau
For The Record
On page 15 in the September 20th issue of the PGR, the second paragraph
above Mr. Hogberg's name (beginning with the words, "One cannot help but
think ••• ") was accidentally indented, thus erroneously indicating that it
was part of the previously quoted article.