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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, AUGUST 5, 1983
PAGE 15
The Reagan Administration's decision to stage military exercises
in Central America as a deterrent to leftist insurgencies may be
the first step toward a long-term U.S. strategic commitment in
the region, according to a senior Pentagon official deeply in
volved in Central American planning..•. In the short term, the
senior official said, moving any forces into Central America
"leaves a hole somewhere else. Being stretched too thin is defi
nitely a worry."
Also,
a stepped-up commitment to Central
America could require a major and sustained increase in defense
spending, especially for naval forces...•
Perhaps the most significant issue is how such deployments would
affect the balance of power there and elsewhere.
William J.
Taylor, senior national security analyst at the Georgetown Uni
versity Center for Strategic and International Studies and a
former West Point professor, believes the United States is
"headed toward � permanent deplo � ment down there,
. at least as
long as Cuba's around and the Soviets keep resupplying them and
their satellites.
And I don't see any reason for them to nego
tiate any kind of settlement.
The Soviets are making a h••• of a
lot of inroads there and they can do it on the cheap and th i � can
tie us �'" he said. If I were a Soviet strategic planner,
dbe
sittTng back and thinking, 'Boy oh boy, we've got them on the
run,'" Taylor said.
"I am very worried about this."
Robert W. Komer, a former CIA and Defense Department official who
is now a senior analyst for the Rand Corp., said•••"Quite obvi
ously the Soviets can't fight and win a war with us in the Carib
bean,"... "But they can very easily and cheaply divert our
forces."
The Soviets see a great advantage in tying down U.S. military forces close
to home.
In the long run this would entail a drawdown of American troops
from Europe and Asia as a nervous American public would demand security
along the porous southern U.S. border.
What, for example, will happen to the 40,000 U.S. troops still on constant
alert in South Korea? The North Koreans have been undergoing a major build
up of ground and naval assault forces.
The Pyongyang regime now has the
world's largest commando force, at 100,000 strong.
There is absolutely no chance for a peaceful solution of the conflict in
Korea. The only factor that keeps the North from renewing the war is the
certainty that the 40,000 U.S. troops would fight along with the South,
triggering an expected larger U.S. response.
Take the American troops out and war is a certainty--with millions of
Korean "boat people" clamoring to come to the u.s.--joining the millions of
Central Americans (and perhaps a few hundred thousand "yacht people" choos
ing to leave Hong Kong once China takes that British colony over in the
years ahead).
Note Lamentations 5: 1-2:
"Look, and behold our reproach 1
Our inheritance has
been turned over to aliens, and our houses to
foreigners."
Asian refugees might flood Australia as well.
Thus, the U.S. posture in Central America has worldwide ramifications.
--Gene H. Hogberg, News Bureau