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be permanently exiled from his country. Mr. Armstrong seemed pleased
with the copy he is reviewing. "The PT is getting back more to what
it used to be," he said.
That's all for this time.
--Brian Knowles, Editorial Services
ON THE WORLD SCENE
SHOWDOWN NEAR IN IRAN? Relative calm prevailed in Iran's cities
over the weekend, with the government's granting of a three-day grace
period allowing unimpeded political demonstrations, since extended
indefinitely. How much longer bloodshed can be avoided remains a
big question, however.
Moslem leader Ayato�lah Khomaini, who returned to Iran last Thursday,
reportedly has set up a secret revolutionary council to direct his
activities on home soil. But he has postponed his earlier intention
to name a full revolutionary government to directly challenge the
regime of Prime Minister Shahpour Bakhtiar.
The Ayatollah's caution will allow more time for political maneuvering
and secret discussions between the two rival sides. Even more critical,
it gives the military additional time to assess the relative strengths
of the two leaders, Bakhtiar and Khomaini.
One thing is for certain. If the powerful military elects to continue
supporting the Prime Minister while at the same time Khomaini decides
to declare a Moslem Jihad (holy war) against the government and the
exiled, but not yet overthrown Shah, there could be a bloody civil
war of frightening proportions. Hell knows no fury, to use an old
phrase, like millions of Moslems intent upon gaining their "eternal
reward" through sacrifice in a jihad.
In a civil war Iran would be ripped asunder, with enormous economic
consequences to the Western world. With the recent glut of oil in the
world, the impact of Iran's internal strife, including a two-month
long general strike, has yet to be really felt. But the situation
will be different in another three.to four months, at the latest.
U.S. officials have openly discussed a series of future options from
a cutback in service stations hours to rationing.
Even if Khomaini wins out without a civil war that destroys Iran's
economy, a future Iran of his design would be of little help to the
industrialized West. A spokesman for the Ayatollah remarked on
February 4 that Iran should cut back 60% on its oil production and
encourage prices to rise still further. Massive oil revenues on the
scale of recent years are simply not needed for the more austere
budgets of a Khomaini-style "Islamic Republic." A 60% cutback would
mean that oil production would fall from a pre-trouble level of 6
million barrels of crude oil a day to 2.4 million, with 750,000
barrels of this shrunken amount used for domestic needs. Long lines
at our service stations in a few months seem more of a likelihood.
--Gene Hogberg, News Bureau