Basic HTML Version
Page 14
PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, April 10, 1981
ON THE WORLD SCENE
POLAND: BACK FROM THE BRINK--WHY DID BREZHNEV BLINK? At the Czechoslovak
Communist Party meeting yesterday in Prague, Soviet President Brezhnev
tossed Poland an olive branch. In a conciliatory speech, Brezhnev gave
Poland's beleaguered Communist party what some called a "second chance"
to solve that nation's internal political crisis, without offering "fra
ternal help" from the Warsaw Pact armies. In addition, the high level
"Soyuz 81" war games maneuvers conducted around Poland's borders have
ended.
Is this just a lull before the storm? A minority of observers think so.
They believe that Moscow has already secretly given up on the Polish
party; that a massive 500,000 man invasion will soon sweep across Polish
territory, enforcing worker discipline. Could be, but most observers
feel that the Soviets have again truthfully displayed their extreme reluc
tance to move in. They fully realize just how costly an invasion would be.
The Polish crisis has resulted in an unusual display of harmony on the
part of Washington and its Western European allies. For his part, Presi
dent Reagan, from his hospital bed, dispatched a toughly-worded note to
Brezhnev, making it abundantly clear to Moscow that Soviet military action
in Poland would trigger massive Western reprisals, amounting to the
toughesc political, economic and diplomatic countermeasures againt the
Kremlin since World War II. The Soviets would be faced with a full array
of sanctions "across the board, short of war," reports our Reuters news
wire. Specifically, these countermeasures are said to include:
--A virtually total trade blockade against the Kremlin and any of
its Warsaw Pact allies involved
in
military operations. Major
projects such as a projected natural gas pipeline from Siberia to
Western Europe would probably be halted.
--A suspension of arms negotiations, a freeze on almost all East
West political and other contacts, abandonment of the European
Security Conference
in
Madrid and a concerted campaign to isolate
Moscow internationally.
--Serious new efforts to strengthen NATO defenses in Europe and
Western security efforts in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East.
--The halting of U.S. financial and food aid for Poland, leaving
the already hard-pressed Soviet Union to grapple with the country's
steadily deepening economic
crisis.
--The possibility of U.S. arms sales to China. This would be a
major development directly affecting Moscow's security and the glob
al balance of power.
Moscow knows that an invasion would probably result in the complete
collapse of the Polish economy, already teetering on the brink. The
Poles would simply stop working. "They can't put a soldier with a gun
behind every Polish worker," remarked a Western diplomat. "There are too
many Poles--35 million of them."
The Soviets are also concerned that Polish resistance to a Red Army move
could trigger civil disturbances in the Soviet republics of Lithuania and
the Ukraine, both of which have historic ties to Poland.