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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, FEBRUARY 4, 1983
PAGE 16
Were European neutralism to assume such proportions that the U.S.
considered the continent no longer worth defending, France would
feel directly threatened because its nuclear capability would
cease to be credible. The present deployment of Soviet SS-20
missiles, if left unchallenged, gives the Soviets an offensive
capacity that France's defensive capacity cannot match •...
When asked why, if the Soviets are capable of disarming Europe
with one blow, they don't go ahead and do it, French strategists
say the basic reason is fear of the American reaction.
The
Soviets cannot be sure that the U.S. would not go to war and start
a nuclear exchange.
"Even if the chances were only five
percent," one French strategist said, "that would be five points
too many considering the awesome risks."
Because Moscow has reasons to fear the U.S. and the U.S. only,
France would consTder the lack �an-xroerTcan�mmTtment to the
defense of Europe an incalcuTabfe and irreparable disaster-
.- Mr.
Mitterrand has warned the Germans that neutralism risks the de
coupling of Europe and the U.S. without war. The Soviets hope to
scare the Europeans into submission and are therefore determined
to preserve the wherewithal to scare them. That is why they will
accept a reduction of armaments so long as the balance remains in
their favor.
When the Germans were the West's bastion in Europe, the French
amused themselves with pricking Uncle Sam and missed no occasion
to proclaim their much-vaunted independence.
Now that that
bastion shows cracks, the French have become the champions of the
American presence in Europe and of preserving the nuclear balance
in order to keep the peace.
If 1983 is starting out at such a hectic pace, what kind of fireworks can we
expect toward the end of the year, as the day approaches for momentous
decisions to be reached regarding those troublesome weapons, both the
Pershings and the mobile SS-20s?
--Gene H. Hogberg, News Bureau